CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2020 Aug 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and no spots were present on the visible
disk; although a pore had developed at approximately N18W20 late in the
period. The 16 Aug CME was analyzed further and consensus among model
results suggests an arriving glancing blow on 20 Aug.

.Forecast...
Very low solar activity is expected to continue 18-20 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels 18-20 Aug; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continues at
background.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime and likely
proximity to the HCS. Total IMF strength was variable at primarily 4 to
7 nT. The Bz component underwent mainly northward deviations. Solar wind
speed peaked at 340 km/s at 17/0729 UTC, but decreased to around 300
km/s afterwards. The phi angle was variable between sectors.

.Forecast...
A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue, but with a mildly
disturbed IMF due to likely HCS proximity on 18 Aug. Weak influences
from a small, isolated negative polarity CH HSS may lead to a minor
solar wind speed increase later on 18 Aug into 19 Aug. Anticipated
arrival of a glancing blow from the 16 Aug CME early to mid-day on 20
Aug is expected to enhance the total IMF strength and cause a modest
increase in solar wind speed.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are expected on 18 Aug. Minor CH HSS influences may
lead to unsettled conditions on 19 Aug. Glancing blow CME effects are
likely to result in unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for
G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20 Aug.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2020 Aug 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2020 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 18-Aug 20 2020

            Aug 18     Aug 19     Aug 20
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        1          2          4     
06-09UT        1          2          4     
09-12UT        1          2          3     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        1          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2020

              Aug 18  Aug 19  Aug 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2020

              Aug 18        Aug 19        Aug 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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